A new study in partnership with the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index and Cornell Law School Senior Fellow and Adjunct Professor, Daniel Alpert shows that a substantial portion of the reported job growth in the official data (May/June/July 2020) reflected workers put back on payroll due to the U.S. Government’s Paycheck Protection Program, who are now being laid off or at high risk of being laid off a second time.
The RIWI dataset shows the re-layoff problem is worse in non-COVID surge states. This suggests the re-layoffs reflect overall economic conditions rather than the resurgence of COVID and implies a much deeper recession than the mainstream jobs data indicate.
News Coverage Includes:
“Roller Coaster Economy (Scream Inside Only) “ by Cardiff Garcia & Paddy Hirsh
The New York Times
“Coming Next: The Greater Recession” by Paul Krugman
“U.S. Job Losses to Mount With Small Firms Running on Fumes” by Katia Dmitrieva & Olga Kharif
The Wall Street Journal
“Labor Pains” by Jeffrey Sparshott
“A Second Wave Of Layoffs Is Coming As Lockdowns Persist” by Kenneth Rapoza
“The Capital Note: COVID’s Casualties” by Daniel Tenreiro & Andrew Stuttaford
The Fiscal Times
“Second Wave of Layoffs Underway: Report” by Michael Rainey
Manufacturing Business Review
“Second Wave of Coronavirus Layoffs Is Here” by Eric Sorensen & Anna Wells
“Unemployed Again: 2nd Wave of Coronavirus-Driven Layoffs Underway, Say Economists” by Alexander Vuocolo