Examples of RIWI’s Predictive Work in Geo-Political Risk
2017 Japanese election — Predicting victory for Shinzo Abe and the LDP
RIWI was able to accurately predict the vote share of the majority governing coalition in the Japanese general election that took place on October 22, 2017. In a report released by Cross Marketing Inc., one of the largest market research firms in Japan, RIWI technology foresaw a vote share of the national popular vote of 46.9% (+/-1.0%) for the governing coalition. After the election, the coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won with 47.7% of the vote. RIWI predicted the vote share of the LDP to be 39.2% (+/- 0.9%) as compared to the LDP’s actual national vote share of 40.7%.
2017 French presidential election — Predicting the Results, Measuring Potential ‘Black Swans’
For one of the largest financial institutions in the world (as measured by assets under management), RIWI predicted the outcomes of the first and second rounds of the 2017 French presidential election held on April 23rd and May 7 2017. Analyzing the final week leading up to the final second round vote, RIWI data were precise, with RIWI round two forecasting data showing the decisive 65-35% split in favor of Emmanuel Macron versus Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN). RIWI crowd forecasting showed that Jean Luc Mélenchon steadily gained support in the final month leading up to the first round vote. His support grew after each televised debate. The Mélenchon surge, and the possibility reflected in RIWI data of a potential Black Swan Mélenchon-Le Pen runoff, did not show up in the conventional polls or in major media commentary until two weeks before the first round run-off, when the dominant expert opinion finally acknowledged a potential four-way statistical dead heat.
2016 Italian Referendum — Predicting the Precise Margin of Defeat of the proposed Constitutional Reforms
For clients RIWI correctly predicted the ‘Yes’ campaign would lose by a shocking margin of 18% (+/- 1%) on December 4th 2016. The scale of the predicted loss – roughly five times as large as predicted by most traditional pollsters – enabled clients to anticipate that the world’s oldest bank would be at the mercy of a state bailout.
2016 US Election — Predicting Electoral College for Trump and the Popular Vote for Clinton
Over 147,000 random Americans offered RIWI forecasts on who would win the 2016 US Presidential Election. Up to election night, RIWI predicted an Electoral College win for President-elect Trump, and for Secretary Clinton to win the popular vote by 1.94% (vs. 2% actual). Clients aware of the prediction leveraged the data for significant gains.
2016 ‘Brexit’ Referendum — Predicting the Critical Turnout Indicator that Would Decide the Brexit Vote
RIWI’s crowd forecasts for Prof. Mellon of Oxford University and Prof. Prosser of the University of Manchester found that disengaged voters 40 and under would decide Brexit. Thus the Brexit experts reported, one day prior to the vote: “[RIWI] results suggest that the Remain campaign is right to worry about weak turnout among young voters.”
2015 Turkish Election Results — Prediction in a State where the Internet was Heavily Monitored
RIWI predicted a hung parliament in a Special Edition of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs on October 28th, 2015 just before the November 1st, 2015 election in Turkey.
2014 Same-sex Marriage Referendum in Ireland — Predicting an Outcome on a High-Sensitive Topic
RIWI data were audited by Irish specialist academics Aengus Carroll and George Robotham who publicized that only RIWI had successfully predicted the precise outcome of the referendum.
2014 US Congressional Turnout Vote — Predicting the Vital Metric Traditional Pollsters Consistently Miss
RIWI data showed the turnout would be 36.6%; the actual turnout was 36.3% among voting-eligible US adults for the November 2014 Congressional Elections.
2013 to Present — Predicting the Future US GDP in Real-Time
This is an ongoing study since December 11th, 2013 measuring the employment-to-population ratio (EMRATIO), one of the most vital economic indicators reflecting the health of the US economy. Given the delays in the release of official US data, RIWI daily data offer the power of constructing GDP forecasts well before official BLS releases.
2012 Egyptian Election Results — Predicting an Electoral Win in a Fragile State
RIWI began tracking the race between Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik in the 13 days leading up to the June 24th, 2012 election, showing daily changes in the vote tied to news (e.g., public allegations of US ties to one candidate versus the other). RIWI was the only data company in the world to predict the win.
2011 Fall of Hosni Mubarak — Showing an Inflection Point in a Fragile State during Citizen Unrest
On February 7th, 2011, as anti-Mubarak protesters occupied Tahrir Square, daily RIWI data showed that the Arab street had turned suddenly against Mubarak — presaging rapid volatility in Egypt and across the larger Middle East region. On February 11th, 2011 Mubarak was forced down as President of Egypt. RIWI’s predictive data were presented at the November 2011 CASIS Conference on Security and Intelligence in Ottawa.