RIWI’s predictive model, based on RIWI’s continuous manufacturing employment and wage data, show a slight deterioration in manufacturing activity in January 2020 into contraction territory, beginning before the COVID-19 outbreak became public. Using data as of February 18, 2020 at 23:59 China Standard Time (GMT +8), the model continues to show a slight contraction in manufacturing activity in February, similar to mid-2019 levels. Data to be updated throughout February, in advance of the release of China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index.
The PMI is a Chinese government survey of business conditions that comes out ahead of official economic data. It is watched closely in financial markets as an early signal to extrapolate China’s overall growth trend.
RIWI data are predictive of the official manufacturing purchasing managers index, as independently assessed by former Canadian central bank economist Mark Kruger.
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Related RIWI research: High frequency tracking of the economic impact in China of the 2019-nCoV outbreak