Given the disinformation war that has been going on on all sides, it has become much more difficult to monitor reality. We’ve been monitoring the opinions of citizens in the US, China, and Russia at high frequency, as part of a Cold War II Index to find out what they think about the evolving conflict between the two adversarial blocks. The most recent brief on the data can be found here.
In Falling into Thucydides’ Trap, macro strategist David Woo notes that the Putin regime is less vulnerable to US sanctions than the Biden administration may believe (referenced at 10:20 in the video below).
The data used to identify this macro theme and associated insights are critical in predicting the outcome of the global conflict and how world financial markets will be impacted. According to Woo, the biggest question and risk to the world and its economies right now is whether President Biden can afford to let President Putin win this war.
Review Woo’s analysis below with focus on RIWI data beginning at 8:10:
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