RIWI 2018 Senate Election Predictions

RIWI Insight of the Week

RIWI Florida Senate Signal, % of Total Predictors

Florida: One week before the midterm elections, based on the RIWI signal from the previous 6 weeks, RIWI predicted a Republican victory in the Senate race.


RIWI Montana Senate Real-Time Signal, % of Predictors

Montana: One week before the election, RIWI predicted Democrat Jon Tester’s win in the state’s Senate race.

See more on RIWI’s 2018 US Senate Elections predictions here.
RIWI’s Approach to Predictive Work

RIWI accurately predicted President Trump’s 2016 election win and many other recent elections and referenda for private clients. RIWI signals differ from conventional approaches in several key ways, including:

1. RIWI predictors come from a broad and truly random set of the population, and go far beyond those who typically answer surveys. About a third of RIWI US predictors have never answered a survey of any kind.

2. Since respondents do not always truthfully report for whom they will vote, we ask them which party they think will win. This approach predicted President Trump’s 2016 election win, in addition to these midterm Senate races.

3. RIWI predictors remain anonymous and RIWI does not collect any personally identifiable data, allowing predictors to provide their views freely and securely, reducing social desirability bias.

4. RIWI respondents are not incentivized in any way or drawn from a panel.

For the complete description of RIWI’s predictions for these contentious Senate races, please contact Lucas Ria at, or 1-416-205-9984 Ext. 6. For all media inquiries, please contact Danielle Goldfarb, Global Head of Research, at:, or 1-416-205-9984 Ext. 4.

Image source: RIWI data 2018