2016 US Election: Predicting Electoral College for President-Elect Trump and the Popular Vote for Clinton

RIWI solicited forecasts from over 147,000 Americans, asking random online respondents to project which of the two major Presidential candidates would win their state’s Electoral College votes. The goal was to monitor electoral predictions at the state-level and to measure the degree to which people reported that they had enough information to make a forecast. Since the vast majority of RIWI respondents in all regions of the world do not typically answer surveys of other kinds, such as self-selected opt-in panels or telephone polls, RIWI’s broad, diverse and random respondents are ideally suited to making valuable ‘silent majority’ predictions.

The data were collected daily between September 12, 2016 and November 8, 2016.

See analysis and projection Figure here.

Image source: Gage Skidmore