As we approach the final stretch of the U.S. election season, RIWI’s real-time data on voter sentiment provides insights into critical shifts in both the Presidential and Senate races. Here’s a closer look at the latest findings from RIWI’s October 25th report.
Presidential Race: Harris Leads with Stable Support
Nationally, Vice President Harris has solidified her position, with 53% of RIWI’s “Likely Voters” expressing a preference for her to win, giving her a 4% lead over former President Trump, who has stabilized at 45%. This lead has been consistent since October 10, reflecting steady support for Harris despite the tight race. These results were gathered with a 2% margin of error, enhancing the reliability of Harris’s lead at this stage in the election.
- Prediction Confidence: 54% of respondents who are likely to vote believe Harris will win their state, indicating a strong sentiment in her favor. This figure has increased by 2% since the last briefing, further distancing her from Trump, who remains at 45%.
Key Battleground States: Harris Advances, Yet Some Ties Persist
In battleground states, Harris is now leading beyond the margin of error in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The latest data reveals several nuances:
- Stable Support in Tied States: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina remain statistically tied, where both candidates are vying for control.
- Momentum in Wisconsin: Harris’s support increased by 3%, further solidifying her lead in the state. Meanwhile, Trump’s support stagnated, particularly in Michigan and North Carolina.
This close competition in battleground states indicates that while Harris is gaining ground, the outcome is still uncertain in states that could be decisive on Election Day.
Senate Races: Democratic Edge with Potential for Ticket Splitting
RIWI’s data in key Senate races suggests a notable advantage for Democratic candidates, who lead in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. However, statistical ties persist in Ohio and Montana, leaving these races open to further changes as Election Day approaches.
Ticket Splitting: An Emerging Factor
A unique trend this election cycle is the rate of ticket-splitting, where voters back candidates from different parties for President and Senate. This phenomenon is particularly evident among Republicans in states like Montana, where 15% of Republican voters support Trump for President but lean Democratic for Senate representation. This divergence between Presidential and Senate choices could be decisive in key states.
Outlook for the Final Stretch
As RIWI continues to track these shifts, upcoming reports will provide real-time updates on sentiment, especially in battleground states and tied Senate races. This data, combined with analysis on voter confidence and ticket-splitting, offers a comprehensive view of potential outcomes as we approach Election Day.
