RIWI Accurately Forecasts Milei’s Victory in Argentina´s PASO Election

By Luan Borges

On the night of August 13, 2023, the results of Argentina’s PASO 2023 Election were revealed. The election resulted in the selection of candidates who will be competing in the general rallies of October 22. This next election will decide the next President of Argentina as well as several congress positions.

With over 97% of the voting tables counted, Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza) was the leading candidate, with 30.04% of the votes. He was followed by Patricia Bullrich (Juntos por el Cambio), who received 16.98% of votes, and Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria), with 21.40%.

When considering the popularity of the individual political parties, La Libertad Avanza was the leader with 30.40% of votes (Milei was the sole candidate for this party). Juntos por el Cambio, formed by candidates Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, received 28.27% of all votes and was the second most popular party. In last place was Unión por la Patria, formed by Sergio Massa and Juan Grabois, who together received 27.27% of votes.

Unlike many news outlets and public opinion polls, RIWI’s data predicted Milei’s victory. In RIWI’s August 7, 2023 publication, RIWI data revealed that Javier Milei was leading the race as an individual candidate, but did note that the gap between him and the other candidates had narrowed in the final few days before the election.

The Argentinian election results match the votes forecasted by RIWI both amongst the general population and those who self-reported as very likely to vote when our poll ended on August 10, 2023. Milei lead amongst both groups, followed by Bullrich and Sergio Massa as illustrated in the charts below.

Chart outlining Argentinian survey respondents and voting intentions according to political parties Chart outlining Argentinian survey respondents who identified as likely voters and their voting intentions according to political parties

Luan Borges is an expert in foreign affairs and policy research and a project manager at RIWI. Luan holds a Master’s degree from the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, with expertise in Latin American issues and research methods. 

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