The consensus expectation was of reasonably robust job growth in August. RIWI data indicated something different: a marked deterioration in the job situation. The RIWI finding has now been confirmed in both the ADP jobs release and subsequently the official jobs report (See here, for example: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/03/business/economy/august-2021-jobs-report.html).” – September 2, 2021
The monthly US nonfarm payroll announcement is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, and especially so during fall 2021 as policymakers and market strategists want to get a true read on the extent to which the Delta variant has impacted the US recovery.
In advance of the official payroll data, RIWI’s full time jobs index shows a marked deterioration in August from the very positive numbers in July.
Each day, RIWI asks a random cohort of the US Web-using population aged 16-64 whether they are paid to work more than 35+ hours of work. The resulting data reflect conditions during the entire month of August (up to August 30), allowing us to see a fuller picture of the impact of the current COVID-19 wave, whereas the official data that come out in early September reflect mid-August conditions.
RIWI has collected these data since before the pandemic. In an independent evaluation, the RIWI series has outperformed all other benchmarks in predictive accuracy for the sign of surprises in nonfarm payrolls.
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